TREND AND FORECASTING ANALYSIS OF RAINFALL OF INDORE CITY

Abstract

The variation in rainfall amount is found to be more potent in poorer or agriculture-dependent countries and seems to be less effective for industrial economies. It attempts to empirically investigate whether the city has actually experienced climate change over the time period of 2001-2022. This study tries to analyse the phenomenon of trend of rainfall and climate-change with respect to Indore city of Madhya Pradesh for the period of 2001 to 2022. As Indore is the representative district of the Chambal basin, the climatic variability and the study of its resultant effects on biodiversity, health, crop-distribution and associated yield is bound to have significant policy implications for the whole region. The study of trends is very important for a country like India whose food security and economy are dependent on the timely availability of water such as 83% water used for agriculture sector, 12% for industrial sector and only 5% for domestic sector (MoWR, GOI, 2022-23). Keywords: Rainfall, trend analysis, Mann-Kendall test, Sen’s slope, decomposition, exponential smoothing.